Ukraine, China and "A Problem From Hell" Revisited
If we can't stop great-power genocide we need to look to other options
If we take an honest appraisal of the Uyghur genocide and the massacres in Ukraine, we come to a horrifying conclusion. If a wealthy, nuclear power wants to commit genocide badly enough, it will get away with it.
The reason has less to do with moral corruption than moral calculation. Take the example of China and the Uyghurs or Russia and the Ukrainians: the only way to stop these genocides from occurring would be to go to war with these countries. And, what would be the cost of such a war? Economic calamity would only be the beginning. A hot war with China or Russia would, at the very least, lead to tens of thousands of dead from conventional military confrontation. And then there is the possibility of a nuclear exchange- an event that would potentially kill millions or, in the darkest scenarios, lead to the end of humanity itself.
The cost of confronting China or Russia over these actions is too high- their great power statuses give them a blackmail veto over our potential efforts. So, we have to resort to economic sanctions and bromides from the international bully pulpit.
Both of these remedies are facile and will continue to be so, when genocides occur in the future. This is because genocides are already a high cost endeavor for a state. If you are China or Russia, and you are looking to massacre a civilian population or confine them to prison camps, that takes a lot of organization, infrastructure and other forms of state capacity. Undertaking these efforts clearly show that the accomplishment of this genocide means a great deal to you. So, why would economic sanctions or moral condemnation tip the scales?
We hate to acknowledge the anarchic and lawless nature of international politics, but this is the unfortunate reality. The only way we can hope to police such actions of countries would be through some world government or court where these countries would allow some kind of enforcement of anti-genocide laws. If these seems implausible to you, you are not alone. And that’s why we should acknowledge the sad conclusion that when a great power seeks to commit genocide, it cannot be stopped.
This is a depressing conclusion, but you would be wrong to think that I want us to throw up our hands and raise a white flag when it comes to genocide. We can still do a great deal to prevent such calamities. But, acknowledging the limits of our tools should guide us to better solutions.
One idea: we should find creative ways to shield vulnerable populations from genocide. Imagine, for a second, if in response to the early persecution of the Uyghurs, we organized a global underground railroad. Any Uyghur who wanted asylum would be whisked out of China and resettled. Or, in the case of Ukraine, we could organize a massive population rescue. Create an international force, run by the U.N. or a western alliance, who would move into war-torn areas and evacuate vulnerable populations. Think about the lives that could have been saved if such a force evacuated the civilian population of Bucha or Mariupol.
The criticism of such evacuations is obvious: it rewards the great power seeking the genocide. China wants to eliminate Uyghur peoplehood in order to increase its power in that region. Removing the population would give China exactly what it wants! Taking the civilian population out of Ukraine could also provide Russia with superior freedom of action in that theater of war. It is also a cold comfort to Ukrainians who are furious that an aggressive power is invading their land. But, I think its clear that the lives that this would save make this a preferable option to the status quo.
This solution isn’t ideal, and it shouldn’t be the only one proposed. But, it at least acknowledges the harsh truth that, for the foreseeable future, great-power genocide cannot be stopped- it can only be circumvented. Lives are on the line, and it matters that we find ways to save possible victims of genocide and not grandstand on the sidelines.